• NeatNit@discuss.tchncs.de
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    23 hours ago

    It’s a good analogy (from my limited understanding, that really was how it was presented in Japan at the time… At least for a short while) but I dang hope it’s not an accurate one. The blunder of Pearl Harbor was eloquently put by this famous quote:

    I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve.

    So the key question now is whether Iran was a sleeping giant with more resources to pull from, or if it’s really defeated now (or soon to be). I personally believe Iran can’t win a war against USA, but it’s not going down without a fight. I’m no authority on the matter though, I might be dead wrong.

    • ericthepeasant@lemmy.world
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      6 hours ago

      Iran is not a sleeping giant and this was not a mass casualty event. There is no substance here and I find it counterproductive

    • chiliedogg@lemmy.world
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      23 hours ago

      They didn’t have nukes, but they damn sure had what was necessary for a dirty bomb, even if they didn’t want to use one. They definitely moved a lot of that material in recent weeks to scattered facilities.

      Since it’s clear we’re attacking them no matter what, I wouldn’t be surprised to see one used in Israel or the US in the next year.

      • Treczoks@lemmy.world
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        15 hours ago

        Welcome to Washington, DC, the former capital of the US. Please check your lead loincloths and protective gears before leaving the shielded bus.

    • hansolo@lemmy.today
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      19 hours ago

      Narrator: But they weren’t a sleeping giant. However, Gob’s Chicken Dance had, in fact, filled them with more resolve than even they had expected.

    • archonet@lemy.lol
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      22 hours ago

      Pearl Harbor would’ve been successful if all our aircraft carriers were in port that day, it was honestly the only way they could’ve won in the Pacific. They bet the moon on a longshot and lost it all.

      while the orange dipshits decision to start another war in the middle east is deplorable, it is also entirely on par for how our leaders have acted for the past… 40-50 years? 45 years sounds about right. At least that long. At any rate, the situation isn’t really that comparable, I don’t think, unless someone cares to correct me. Do we really think this is going to end up that catastrophically for us?

      • NeatNit@discuss.tchncs.de
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        22 hours ago

        As an Israeli* it’s definitely going to turn out better for us than if USA hadn’t joined in. As for the rest of the world, and specifically USA… I fucking hate where everything is headed, but I think USA can easily win this.

        * An Israeli who, much like many Americans, is stuck with a government of criminally insane psychopaths he voted against and protested against. I in no way support the actions of the current government.

        • fodor@lemmy.zip
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          16 hours ago

          Unless people use nukes, right? Yeah. Maybe you lose everything. That’s the risk, my friend.

          • NeatNit@discuss.tchncs.de
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            15 hours ago

            Yeah, maybe. I specifically said “better than if USA hadn’t joined”. I’m not convinced that the US bombing made Iran more likely to use a nuke compared to 2 days ago. Nor any other country, for that matter. But hell, as I keep saying, I might be totally wrong about that.

            • pachrist@lemmy.world
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              10 hours ago

              Not an expert by any stretch, but I would say it is infinitely more likely Iran deploys a nuke now. The US has spent a lot of time over the past 80 years doing whatever it wants to countries it doesn’t like that don’t have nukes, and it leaves alone countries that have them.

              If I’m Iran, and I don’t have a nuke, I would be on the phone 24/7 with Putin and Kim about using something they have to stage a “test” detonation on Iranian soil.

        • captainlezbian@lemmy.world
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          20 hours ago

          As an American I think we have the capacity but neither the will nor the leadership to do so.

          Americans are still reeling from 20 years of pointless war in the middle east where we gained nothing, lost a lot of lives, money, and reputation and came back with credible accusations of war crimes. This is a bipartisan exhaustion. Trump tried to claim to be the peace candidate in 2024, and “America first” is claimed to mean neither war nor aid should be given to anyone.

          So yeah, consent is being manufactured at the moment, but I suspect it won’t endure much loss. And I fear for American Jews once that happens because they’re likely to be blamed for the actions of the Israeli government. Especially given how little attention the “not in our name” movement is receiving.

      • Denjin@lemmings.world
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        16 hours ago

        In January 1941 it really didn’t look like USA had the stomach for a fight. They’d spent 30+ years withdrawing from the global stage, there were marches on the street to keep America out of the war in Europe.

        The very fact that by 1943 they’d shipped more than a million soldiers 6,000 miles away to an entirely different continent while doing the same thing in the other direction was an unprecedented achievement.

        Plus is also didn’t look inevitable that the axis would lose, Germany were still steaming forward in Russia at that point it was far from certain who would prevail and if Japan hadn’t hit first they would never have achieved anything.

          • Denjin@lemmings.world
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            15 hours ago

            It’s not really comporable though? USA had more manufacturing capacity than almost the entire rest of the world combined in 1941.

            Plus Iran has consistently shown it does have the stomach for a fight. It’s used terrorist cells and proxy militias to engage in indirect warfare with Israel and it’s allies since the Islamic Revolution. You couldn’t pick an enemy in the world more willing and able to put up a fight against Israel and America.

            Certainly not in conventional means but then they’ve never shown any interest in conventional warfare since Iran/Iraq and they mostly won that through the use of suicide bombers disuading Hussein from perusing a ground offensive in Iran.

            • Knock_Knock_Lemmy_In@lemmy.world
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              13 hours ago

              Sounds like you are agreeing with me, not arguing against me.

              USA had more manufacturing capacity

              [Iran have] never shown any interest in conventional warfare

              So these cancel out.

              You couldn’t pick an enemy in the world more willing and able to put up a fight against Israel

              So they have already shown willingness to fight one enemy. But after this attack.

              and America.

              Now they have been provoked into a war with the US.

              • Denjin@lemmings.world
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                12 hours ago

                I’m just saying that there’s no fair comparison between USA in 1941 and Iran in 2025 because everything about their situations is different, despite the similar results we’re likely to see.

                I was neither agreeing or disagreeing with you.

                • Knock_Knock_Lemmy_In@lemmy.world
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                  10 hours ago

                  History rhymes rather than repeats.

                  I think the parallels of a country being unjustly attacked by another, possibly leading to a world war, are worth considering.

                  • Denjin@lemmings.world
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                    9 hours ago

                    No, I think beyond this meme there’s zero to link the two. Far more ominous are the parallels to the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Even down to the false claims of WMD.

      • Distractor@lemm.ee
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        14 hours ago

        Iranian social post comment in 2100:

        Operation Midnight Hammer would’ve been successful if all our enriched uranium was in the targeted sites that day, it was honestly the only way they could’ve won in the Middle East. They bet the moon on a longshot and lost it all.

        Edit to add: I have no idea whether Iran can deliver on it’s rhetoric, just pointing out that it seems they’d already cleared out those sites, so the attack might have achieved nothing other than giving Iran the excuse they needed to accelerate their nuclear program. Also, they’re visiting russia today, who do have nukes :/

        • archonet@lemy.lol
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          3 hours ago
          1. there is no “winning in the middle east”, there never has been.

          2. I’ve been hearing that Iran has been getting close to nukes literally my entire life. But sure, now, finally, they were actually getting close to nukes. According to the two powers attacking them who needed a half-baked excuse to bomb yet another patch of desert. I’ll bet.

        • Allemaniac@lemmy.world
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          11 hours ago

          according to the US intelligence agencies, Iran wasn’t even close to enrich uranium enough to even think about making a weapon out of it. Iranian social post comments in 2100 will more likely be “hey, remember when the yanks bombed an empty desert and called it a success?” And they all laugh whole-heartedly and knees slapping

          • Distractor@lemm.ee
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            6 hours ago

            That’s actually scarier. We know for a fact there used to be nuclear facilities there, the locations weren’t secret. So, if it turns out that “the yanks bombed an empty desert and called it a success”, then it means those photos of trucks a few days ago were the Iranians moving not only the enriched uranium but also all their research and enriching machinery. Everything.

            According to this May BBC article, the delay in producing a bomb wouldn’t be in enriching the uranium, but in getting a functioning bomb to put it in:

            US officials estimate that, if Iran chooses to pursue a weapon, it could produce weapons-grade material in less than two weeks and potentially build a bomb within months.

            The Institute for Science and International Security concluded similarly that:

            Iran can convert its current stock of 60 percent enriched uranium into 233 kg of weapon-grade uranium (WGU) in three weeks at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP), enough for 9 nuclear weapons, taken as 25 kg of WGU per weapon.

            Iran could produce its first quantity of 25 kg of WGU in Fordow in as little as two to three days.

            So, if the US attack didn’t destroy Iran’s uranium stock and it’s enrichment facilities, then we have to hope they’re correct about Iran needing months to build a bomb.

            The problem is, that estimate assumes that Iran hasn’t started developing weapons yet. Things that make me nervous about that assumption are:

            1. Iran managed to successfully hide their previous nuclear weapons development programme (Amad Project) from 1989 to 2002.

            The project was made public in August 2002 by the NCRI (an exiled coalition of Iranian opposition parties). Iran claimed it was purely scientific research, but a lot of evidence has cropped up since disproving that statement. Old news, but the point is, no-one knew about it at the time.

            1. In Feb 2023, IAEA inspectors found uranium particles enriched to 83.7%, from two cascades of IR-6 centrifuges that had been configured in a way “substantially different” to what had been previously declared. According to Iran, these were due to ‘unintended fluctuations’ in enrichment levels that may have occurred during the transition period.

            2. On 10 June, the NCRI - yes, the same opposition parties - released a statement claiming that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons through a new program called the “Kavir Plan”. According to them, the new project started in 2009 and involves six sites working on warheads and related technology i.e. working on the bit that US Officials said could take a few months.

            The last point hasn’t been verified by anyone else, so maybe it’s not true. Maybe the NCRI simply want to start a war that will topple the current regime. We can hope, right?

            OK, well, I’ve now completely depressed myself 🫤 Sorry, probably more information than you wanted too. I’ll show myself out now.